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International shipping has finally set a target to reduce its CO2 emission by at least 50% by 2050. Despite this positive progress, this target is still not sufficient to reach Paris Agreement goals since CO2 emissions from international shipping could reach 17% of global emissions by 2050 if no measures are taken. A key factor that hampers the achievement of Paris goals is the knowledge gap in terms of what level of decarbonization it is possible to achieve using all the available technologies. This paper examines the technical possibility of achieving the 1.5° goal of the Paris Agreement and the required supporting policy measures. We project the transport demand for 6 ship types (dry bulk, container, oil tanker, gas, wet product and chemical, and general cargo) based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD’s) global trade projection of 25 commodities. Subsequently, we test the impact of mitigation measures on CO2 emissions until 2035 using an international freight transport and emission model. We present four possible decarbonization pathways which combine all the technologies available today. We found that an 82–95% reduction in CO2 emissions could be possible by 2035. Finally, we examine the barriers and the relevant policy measures to advance the decarbonization of international maritime transport
Halim, R.A.; Kirstein, L.; Merk, O.; Martinez, L.M. Decarbonization Pathways for International Maritime Transport: A Model-Based Policy Impact Assessment. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2243.
The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore, ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.
Halim, R.A.; Kwakkel, J.H.; Tavasszy, L.A. A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on european ports. Futures 2016, 81, 148-160.
This paper presents a strategic model for port-hinterland freight distribution networks. The approach utilizes a combination of a multi-objective optimization model to estimate locations and networks of distribution centers and an assignment model that recognizes distributed service level preferences. Our example application concerns the European continent and is transferable to other regions. The model calibration is able to explain the European port-hinterland distribution structures satisfactorily. We compute novel performance measures that take into account port-hinterland distribution structures. The measures include port-hinterland transport cost, port-hinterland transport time, and distribution center-hinterland transport time. These measures can provide inputs for port-connectivity studies.
Halim, R.A.; Kwakkel, J.H.; Tavasszy, L.A. A strategic model of port-hinterland freight distribution networks. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 2016, 95, 368-384
The objective of this book chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of investments in network infrastructure and fleets, the prediction of environmental impacts of transport and the analysis of success of governmental policies about maritime markets and hinterland transport systems. As the future development of global freight flows is unknown and quite uncertain, models are used to define plausible and consistent scenarios of the future performance of the sector. Models of global container transport demand can follow the generic architecture available for freight transport modelling. We describe the methods and techniques available by reviewing the literature with a specific focus on global level freight modelling and treat the subject in two main parts. One part involves modelling the demand for movement between regions, i.e. the outcome of the processes of production, consumption and trade. The second part involves the modelling of demand for transport services by mode and route of transport, including the demand for maritime and inland port services. In both parts we find that surprisingly little research has been conducted specifically for descriptive models of global container movements.
Tavasszy L., Ivanova O., Aprilyanto Halim R. (2015) Modelling Global Container Freight Transport Demand. In: Lee CY., Meng Q. (eds) Handbook of Ocean Container Transport Logistics. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 220. Springer, Cham
The interconnectedness of different actors in the global freight transportation industry has rendered such a system as a large complex system where different sub-systems are interrelated. On such a system, policy-related-exploratory analyses which have predictive capacity are difficult to perform. Although there are many global simulation models for various large complex systems, there is unfortunately very little research aimed to develop a global freight transportation model. In this paper, we present a multi-level framework to develop an integrated model of the global freight transportation system. We employ a system view to incorporate different relevant sub-systems and categorize them in different levels. The four-step model of freight transport is used as the basic foundation of the framework proposed. In addition to that, we also present the computational framework which adheres to the high level modeling framework to provide a conceptualization of the discrete-event simulation model which will be developed.
R. A. Halim, L. A. Tavasszy and M. D. Seck, "Modeling the global freight transportation system: A multi-level modeling perspective," Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), Berlin, 2012, pp. 1-13.